Another day, another 'soft' survey shows improvement. Following Dallas Fed's surge yesterday, Chicago PMI printed a dramatically better than expected 66.2 (60.0 exp) - the highest since March 2011. This print is above the highest estimate (forecast range 58 - 64.7 from 31 economists surveyed) and is a 4 standard deviation beat... To the highest since March 2011... Under the hood it was oddly disappointing... Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion New orders rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion - highest since Feb 1974 Employment fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion Production rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion Order backlogs rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion Business activity has been positive for 12 months over the past year. Oddly, only 3 factors rose in October compared to September (compared to 7 in September)