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Weather Models Forecast Coldest Thanksgiving On Record In Northeast

According to new weather models, the US mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions are expected to experience the coldest/earliest temperatures to the start of any winter season on record. 

Weather Prediction Center: "Highs 20-35 degrees below normal" 

The culprit: a massive area of high pressure from the Arctic Circle will descend across Canada and into the Northeast, collapsing temperatures to life-threatening conditions ahead of Thanksgiving and into Black Friday.  

"Very cold air will make its way into the Northeast just in time for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Most major cities along the I-95 corridor will rival coldest maximum temperatures for the date, including New York City, Boston, Providence, and Philadelphia. Most cities will run 20 to 25 degrees below average for late November, and combined with breezy conditions, will make for brutally cold “feels like” temperatures even colder than the air temperature. This will make for an interesting dilemma for shoppers on the fence about heading out for Black Friday, with temperatures Thursday night in the single digits and teens for most. With this increased cold risk, natural gas continues to be heavily influenced by weather model forecasts through the end of the month," said

The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) released new weather models that indicate the blast of arctic air could affect much of the mid-Atlantic and North East regions, threatening to keep America's consuming herd indoors, crippling shopping intentions and keeping tens of millions of Americans away from their favorite retailer of choice.

NDFD Low Temperatures For Thanksgiving  

"November is running more than 4°F below normal across the Lower 48. Unprecedented cold coming by Thanksgiving will turn this map dark purple across the Northeast," said Ryan Maue of weathermodels.com. 

"New York City has only had three Thanksgivings dating to 1870 when the high temperature failed to rise out of the 20s, according to National Weather Service statistics. The coldest was a high of 26 degrees on Nov. 28, 1901.

Forecast highs Thursday could be near that all-time record coldest high set almost 117 years ago.

In southern New England, Boston could come within a couple of degrees of its coldest Thanksgiving high of 24 degrees, also set Nov. 28, 1901.

Providence, Rhode Island, Philadelphia and Burlington, Vermont, may also see highs within striking distance of the coldest on record for Thanksgiving Day in each city.

Low temperatures Thanksgiving morning and Black Friday will likely be 15 to 25 degrees below average for late November.

The temperature for the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade in New York City is expected to be in the low- to mid-20s. It will feel even colder when you factor in the wind chill, possibly in the mid-teens.

A low temperature of 20 degrees Thursday morning would also be near the record coldest Thanksgiving low at New York City's Central Park.

Elsewhere, low temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings will be in the single digits and lower teens across the interior Northeast. Closer to the coast, it will be in the teens or lower 20s. 

A few cities may flirt with daily record lows for Nov. 22 (Thursday) or Nov. 23 (Friday).

This includes Albany, New York, and Providence, Rhode Island, where the daily record-low temperature Thursday is 9 degrees and 16 degrees, respectively.

Although it will be cold, the air will also be dry, which means there won't be any snowfall to worry about Thursday and Friday," said the Weather Channel

With weather models pointing to record low temperatures, it has been no surprise that natural gas prices have been moving higher, besides OptionSellers.com and other funds who were recently blown out of their short positions when price popped almost 18% last Wednesday. 

NatGas Chart

The Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas storage in the lower 48 states was below the five-year average as of October 31. 

Storage Inventory Forecast, US Lower-48, Latest GFS

US Lower-48 EC Heating Degree Day (HDD) Operational 

With some regions along the North East expected to smash 100-year lows in the coming days, it is also noted that the sun is currently entering one of the deepest Solar Minima since the 1800s when the last mini ice age was observed. 

“The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age,” wrote Dr. Tony Phillips just six weeks ago, on September 27, 2018. The lack of sunspots on our sun could bring about record cold temperatures, and perhaps even a mini ice age.

If the next few days are a habinger of what to expects, the US Northeast is going to have a brutal winter ahead, an excuse which Wall Street analysts will gladly use to explain why the economy is rapidly slowing and potentially throwing a wrench in any Fed plans to deviate from its tightening course if Jerome Powell once again assumes that it is not the economy, stupid, but the cold weather.