With her Brexit deal facing almost certain defeat in the Commons, opposition parties threatening to bring down her government and European leaders refusing to reopen negotiations on the withdrawal treaty, Prime Minister Theresa May is heading into Wednesday's intraparty no confidence vote - which began only moments ago - in a tough position. She has no obvious path forward that would stave off a 'no deal' Brexit (well, aside from hoping that an adverse market reaction and attendant political pressures inspire a change of heart in her MPs) and though she's expected to survive the vote, the tumultuous Brexit negotiations have hamstrung her government and deadened her political future. Which is probably why May revealed during a speech at the 1922 Committee meeting held before voting begins at 1 pm that she will not seek another term as prime minister during the next general election in 2022. Her announcement, which confirmed hints from earlier out of No. 10, caused some ministers to weep. However, analysts said the timing of May's announcement suggests she has made a back-door deal with Tory MPs to secure their votes in exchange for her stepping aside after the process of Brexit is complete (it's also an acknowledgement that she wouldn't be the best candidate to lead the Tories in the next vote after all the Brexit-related sniping has diminished her popularity. As she entered the meeting at around 5 pm London Time (noon in New York), the prime minister was greeted with loud banging - a sign of support. To stay on, May needs to win a simple majority of the 317 Tory MPs eligible to vote in Wednesday's secret ballot. And so far, she's put on a After returning from her "whistlestop" tour of the Continent, May came out swinging on Wednesday, saying she'd fight to stay on "with everything I've got" before battling with her archrival, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn, during a contentious session of PMQs. Here's the timeline for Wednesday's vote: 5 p.m. - May addresses a meeting of the 1922 Committee -- the name of the caucus of Conservative MPs. The meeting is closed, but from outside, we'll be able to hear cheering, banging desks and so on. We expect her to promise not to fight the next election 6 p.m. - MPs begin voting. They can vote by proxy, and it's a secret ballot. So all those public expressions of loyalty may not be worth much 8 p.m. - Voting finishes. Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, begins counting Before 9 p.m. - Brady announces the result During a round of questions after her statement, May told lawmakers that she's still working on making the Irish Backstop - the most controversial component of her Brexit deal - more palatable to DUP MPs who have threatened to vote against her bill, and possibly even join Labour in a vote of no confidence in May's government. The prime minister's pitch to MPs is that ditching her now could mean delaying Brexit, or possibly even no Brexit at all. The consensus view is that May will prevail in Wednesday's vote (158 MPs have publicly pledged to vote for her). However, there are some subtle signs that an upset could be in the offing (analysts suspect that May could resign if she survives by only a narrow margin). Brexiteers affiliated with the European Research Group (the faction led by Jacob Rees-Mogg) wouldn't have gone to the trouble of orchestrating the vote if they didn't feel there was something to be gained from it. According to Telegraph Deputy Political Editor Steven Swinford, that something might be surpassing the 80-vote threshold, which would signal that at least half of Tory MPs who don't have formal roles in the government are opposed to May's leadership. Eurosceptic MPs still think they are on course for a rebellion by at least 80 Tory MPs against the PM, although they admit they are unlikely to win. They view the 80 figure is significant because it represents half of Tory MPs who aren't on payroll or in party roles. — Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1072895805181317120?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); Still, online betting markets expect May to win easily. Ladbrokes put odds of May staying on as leader at 2/7 shortly before the vote, while they see 5/2 odds that she is ousted. Should May lose or resign, the race to succeed her has no clear front-runner, though former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is the most popular and best known among the contenders. You will find more infographics at Statista The likely candidates include: Boris Johnson Sajid Javid Michael Gove Amber Rudd Penny Mordaunt For what its worth, the pound has reacted positively to reports that May likely has the votes to prevail as the British currency erased its losses from Tuesday. However, the cost of insuring against one-day moves in the currency has spiked. This suggests that traders are bracing for big swings in the pound tonight once the results are announced.