Evercore ISI, the company which unlike the ISM, conducts business surveys that are not only credible, but actionable, just looked at the latest data, and had the following observation: "Evercore ISI trucking survey is down a big -1.3 to 51.0 versus its peak last year of 65.4. The tech survey slipped below 50.0. If they don't stop declining soon, we will become more worried about recession risk." More details: So what happens if the economy does, as not only Evercore but as 6 out of 6 regional Fed surveys suggest, roll over into recession? If the economy goes into recession, S&P declines average -31%. If the economy remains in expansion, S&P corrections average -15% Finally, it's not just the fundamentals that are concerning - the technicals are perhaps an even greater fear: